forexeatrading 
USD/JPY Key Factors
- Tariffs and commerce wars are taking a again seat to US-Russia peace discussions in Riyadh immediately.
- USD/JPY is buying and selling greater than 700 pips under its mid-January excessive, simply above key help within the mid-151.00s
- If the help zone is damaged with a definitive transfer under 151.00, bears will take the higher hand and look to drive USD/JPY under 150 towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement close to 149.00 subsequent.
It’s been a quiet (holiday-delayed) begin to the week for US merchants, with main indices comparatively flat and main currencies principally marking time in opposition to each other.
For a lot of merchants, the main focus is on the potential for a peace deal between Russian and Ukraine, with high-level talks going down between the US and Russian lieutenants in Riyadh immediately. Nevertheless, readers mustn’t count on an instantaneous decision this week, as the present discussions are extra about setting the groundwork for a extra formal palaver between Presidents Trump and Putin subsequent week (with feedback from Ukrainian President Zelensky inevitably taking part in a task within the discussions as effectively).
The opposite main theme driving the US greenback in latest weeks – tariffs and a possible international “commerce warfare” – has taken a backseat as merchants await extra particulars on Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” and tick down the times till subsequent month when tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and broad tariffs on metal and aluminum may come again into play.
Japanese Yen Technical Evaluation – USD/JPY Each day Chart
Supply: StoneX, TradingView
Keying in on USD/JPY, we are able to see the broader pattern of US dollar weak point on the again of delayed tariffs in additional element. The pair is buying and selling greater than 700 pips under its mid-January excessive, simply above key help within the mid-151.00s the place the 2025 low and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the September-January rally converge.
If the help zone is damaged with a definitive transfer under 151.00, bears will take the higher hand and look to drive USD/JPY under 150 towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement close to 149.00 subsequent. In the meantime, any bullish transfer must exceed the 50-day EMA round 154.00 earlier than consumers would begin to develop extra optimistic that the pair may retest its latest highs.
With little in the way in which of top-tier Japanese information on the financial calendar, merchants will give attention to developments out of the US, together with updates on the US-Russia peace talks, tomorrow’s FOMC minutes, and Thursday’s replace on preliminary unemployment claims.
